The Combo

According to folklore, as the Apollo 8 crew was returning from the first orbit of the Moon in December 1968, the young son of one of the mission controllers asked who was driving the spaceship. Astronaut William Anders replied, “I think Isaac Newton is doing most of the driving now”.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect¹ is a cognitive bias where individuals with low competence in a specific area overestimate their abilities. Coined by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger, the phenomenon occurs because individuals lack the self-awareness to recognize their limitations. This overconfidence often leads to flawed decision-making, lack of self-criticism, and resistance to adapting and learning, as they are unaware of the depth of their ignorance.
Hubris², on the other hand, refers to excessive pride or self-confidence, often to the point of arrogance. Rooted in ancient Greek literature, hubris was seen as a moral failing that led individuals to defy natural laws or common sense, ultimately resulting in their downfall. In modern contexts, it is associated with individuals whose inflated sense of self leads them to disregard advice, expertise, or intellectual limitations. Hubris blinds individuals to risks, creating a false sense of invincibility.
When combined, the Dunning-Kruger Effect and hubris create a potent blend: a lack of competence paired with overconfidence and an unwillingness to acknowledge flaws and take feedback. This combination can have nasty consequences, especially in high-stakes situations, where the inability to recognize limitations only magnifies errors.

Finding a specimen with the explosive mix is a great research opportunity; if you ever catch one, observe them closely and silently because they will teach you a lot about what NOT to do, as they are particularly skillful at consistently making the wrong decisions, which is a skill in itself if you think of it³.
One thing must be recognized though: they are incredibly committed idiots. Typically reluctant to admit when they're wrong, they will double down on failed decisions to protect their ego, an escalation of commitment that will only compound the initial mistake. In the process, they will alienate people left and right, creating an environment where dissent is discouraged, collaboration is weakened, and subordinates hesitate to challenge subpar decisions, leading to shitshows galore. Mind you, the combo is infectious; just like Brain Slugs in Futurama, they manage to estrange otherwise smart people out of putting their job security on the line or promising the world, turning them into robots with monotone voices, just like our friend Hermes in the picture below.

“I strongly believe this is the best for the company” — A formerly smart manager

If the organization were the Apollo 8 spaceship and you were the innocent kid asking who is driving, Astronaut William Anders this time would probably go:

— I think Dunning and Kruger are doing most of the driving now.∎

1. https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/dunning-kruger-effect

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris

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